Submitted on June 4th, 2009 by Dr. Aaron Baum (not verified)
1. Most of the remaining oil is owned by NATIONS -- i.e. S.A., Russia, Venezuala, etc. -- not companies on regulated stock exchanges. Nations may have motivation to exaggerate their reserves, and certainly have no-one to check up on them or levy consequences if they lie. So there may be some surprises ahead, and they may not go the way he suggests.
2. He does not mention the equally-important rise in *demand* for oil, as China, India, Brazil, etc. industrialize. Rising demand, more expensive supply = permanently more expensive oil, with demand kept in check by either recession or improved efficiency. Biofuels won't fill the gap much, most are inherently limited, and the others will take a while to grow into significant suppliers.
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Nationally-owned oil holders may *over-estimate* their reserves!
Submitted on June 4th, 2009 by Dr. Aaron Baum (not verified)1. Most of the remaining oil is owned by NATIONS -- i.e. S.A., Russia, Venezuala, etc. -- not companies on regulated stock exchanges. Nations may have motivation to exaggerate their reserves, and certainly have no-one to check up on them or levy consequences if they lie. So there may be some surprises ahead, and they may not go the way he suggests.
2. He does not mention the equally-important rise in *demand* for oil, as China, India, Brazil, etc. industrialize. Rising demand, more expensive supply = permanently more expensive oil, with demand kept in check by either recession or improved efficiency. Biofuels won't fill the gap much, most are inherently limited, and the others will take a while to grow into significant suppliers.
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