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His Quals vs. ?

There are very few people on the planet I would less like to debate about a subject such as this one than Peter Schwartz. I have known him for years, and he is a genius polymath with deep energy industry experience. As for hair-splitting about what Peak Oil really stands for, to most of us who have studied it (which includes Peter) it involves the Hubbert/Campbell/Deffeyes notions of declining production once we pass roughly 50% of the original oil in place (I'm simplifying this, of course.) There are important differences between this geology-driven view of a peak and a geopolitically-driven (or capital-constrained) peak in global oil output. Among other things, the former is permanent; the latter might not be.

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