Submitted on July 8th, 2009 by David Stein (not verified)
These are the statements that Peter made, amongst his rhetoric:
There will some day be a peak in oil.
There probably is a finite reservoir of oil on the planet.
There is a day when we will reach peak production.
We don't really know how much oil is in most of the oil reservoirs in the world.
Most of the data is in private or state government hands and they are not particularly forthcoming about how much is there.
The field production estimates are usually conservative, which results in them increasing once actual production happens and over some time of production.
Technology improves (EOR and deep offshore). It improves exploration and production capabilities of "more" oil.
What is gone, at the margin (key phrase), is cheap oil outside of the Middle East, Russia, etc.
Deep offshore is expensive. Deep underground is expensive. The marginal oil is going to be more costly.
The deep offshore off Brazil is more costly, but "it's big" (note he did not use the term "giant" or "super-giant").
Side note: This agrees with the CNN quote: responding to a question asking if offshore Brazil is the next Saudi Arabia, Rex Tillerson (CEO of Exxon/Mobil) said, "It's no doubt large, but to characterize it as the next Saudi Arabia mischaracterized the resource."
We are not going to run out of oil before the issue of climate change drives our change.
It'll be costly oil, but it's climate change and more expensive oil, not the fact that we're running out of oil, that will drive change.
None of his statements (as opposed to opinions) contradict the WEO 2008 report. In fact they support Peak Oil's major points. Why are we tapping "marginal", expensive oil? Because we have to -- the easy, cheap oil is running too low to satisfy demand.
We do know production profiles from depleted and existing fields. We do know that Ghawar is in decline (5.1 mb/d in 2007 vs. peak of 5.6 mb/d in 1980), in fact 17 of the top 20 producing fields worldwide are in decline (WEO 2008, pg 225). Numbers 9, 10, and 13 may not have peaked, but in 2007 they made up less than 9.5% of the top 20 field's total.
I agree with the WEO executive summary's opening statement:
"The world's energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable -- environmentally, economically, socially. But that can -- and must -- be altered; there's still time to change the road we're on. It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply. What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution."
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Peter's statements are true, his opinions misleading
Submitted on July 8th, 2009 by David Stein (not verified)These are the statements that Peter made, amongst his rhetoric:
There will some day be a peak in oil.
There probably is a finite reservoir of oil on the planet.
There is a day when we will reach peak production.
We don't really know how much oil is in most of the oil reservoirs in the world.
Most of the data is in private or state government hands and they are not particularly forthcoming about how much is there.
The field production estimates are usually conservative, which results in them increasing once actual production happens and over some time of production.
Technology improves (EOR and deep offshore). It improves exploration and production capabilities of "more" oil.
What is gone, at the margin (key phrase), is cheap oil outside of the Middle East, Russia, etc.
Deep offshore is expensive. Deep underground is expensive. The marginal oil is going to be more costly.
The deep offshore off Brazil is more costly, but "it's big" (note he did not use the term "giant" or "super-giant").
Side note: This agrees with the CNN quote: responding to a question asking if offshore Brazil is the next Saudi Arabia, Rex Tillerson (CEO of Exxon/Mobil) said, "It's no doubt large, but to characterize it as the next Saudi Arabia mischaracterized the resource."
We are not going to run out of oil before the issue of climate change drives our change.
It'll be costly oil, but it's climate change and more expensive oil, not the fact that we're running out of oil, that will drive change.
None of his statements (as opposed to opinions) contradict the WEO 2008 report. In fact they support Peak Oil's major points. Why are we tapping "marginal", expensive oil? Because we have to -- the easy, cheap oil is running too low to satisfy demand.
We do know production profiles from depleted and existing fields. We do know that Ghawar is in decline (5.1 mb/d in 2007 vs. peak of 5.6 mb/d in 1980), in fact 17 of the top 20 producing fields worldwide are in decline (WEO 2008, pg 225). Numbers 9, 10, and 13 may not have peaked, but in 2007 they made up less than 9.5% of the top 20 field's total.
I agree with the WEO executive summary's opening statement:
"The world's energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable -- environmentally, economically, socially. But that can -- and must -- be altered; there's still time to change the road we're on. It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply. What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution."