Urban populations are growing across the globe, and as population density increases so does the need for practical, efficient, and climate-friendly personal mobility. Urban transport accounts for approximately 25% of cities’ GHG emissions and is a major contributor to air pollution. In fact, about 95% of the urban population of Europe lives in areas with severe or dangerous air pollution according to WHO guidelines, while urban traffic deaths are on the rise across Europe, increasing by 6% in 2023. 

I recently attended Micromobility Europe, an immersive two-day celebration of small electric vehicles and their power to radically reshape our cities. It brought together innovators, suppliers, and the public sector to discuss the key trends, challenges, and opportunities in the European micromobility space. Several themes emerged from the panel discussions and ecosystem partner presentations, key among them the role of regulation in the adoption of safe and sustainable micromobility.  

In the past, regulation has frustrated the roll-out of new vehicles and it has stalled adoption—a clear example being the initial overcrowding of electric scooters and resulting over-correction of city-wide scooter bans. Coordination and cooperation between the public sector and innovators will be essential to establish effective policies to both improve safety and facilitate widespread uptake of electric micromobility solutions.  

The Future of E-bikes, 2024 and Beyond 

While electric scooters have captured headlines in recent years, e-bikes are original electric micromobility, and in many ways the backbone of the micromobility sector. The first e-bike boom occurred around 2015, followed several years later by a surge in e-scooters—industry members agree that we are now seeing an evolution of the e-bike market, both in terms of demand pull, trends, services, and key dynamics.  

As the e-bike market matures, manufacturers are recovering from the supply chain challenges of the pandemic era. Rather than focusing on putting out fires, e-bike developers are shifting their mindset towards supply-chain resilience—for example recycling initiatives, circular battery economies, and regional resource autonomy.  

In terms of demand and customer expectations, 2020 customers were relatively inexperienced, and satisfied with basic bike design and services. The current customer base for e-bikes is much more informed, has specific performance demands (e.g., range, battery life), and increasingly relies on standards, testing, and certifications.  

Overall, customers are looking for e-bikes that will replace car usage—users want high-utility bikes for leisure and transport, and longer-distance travel, enabling an underlying lifestyle shift. Digitalization is a key value-add that is also now expected of e-bikes—customers want a micromobility solution that will seamlessly link to their personal electronics in a familiar and user-friendly way (mimicking CarPlay, for example). 

In an increasingly crowded market with demanding and well-informed customers, innovators are establishing value add-ons around financing (e.g., leasing options, fractioned payment) and retail services (service hubs for repairs, in-person shopping). However, novel e-bike technologies will likely not hit the markets until 2025-2026, when current stock is depleted.  

Looking forward: Keep an Eye Out For… 

• Consolidation of the e-bike market: bankruptcies and closures will likely continue as liquidity remains a major concern for innovators—cash-strapped innovators with sound business models and technologies will be acquired 
   

• Supply chain resilience: recycling of components, use of recycled materials to meet corporate sustainability goals and to de-risk supply chains 
   

• Business models: B2B2C—employers offering e-mobility solutions to employees with discounts or through benefits packages 
   

• Artificial intelligence: AI-enabling innovation with very limited resources—as the market becomes more crowded, differentiation is more difficult both for innovators and investors 
   

• Cities leading the charge: in micromobility adoption to supplement public transport and to increase adoption by providing sustainable micromobility infrastructure (e.g., Venice Sustainable Cities Challenge)  

On a related note, read my recent blog on E-mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa: Electric Two Wheelers Gaining Momentum and download our complimentary report, The Rise of Two and Three-Wheelers​ in Africa.